tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post353598546513146847..comments2024-03-22T11:34:45.165+01:00Comments on taw's blog: Game Theory proves that UW Delver deserves a banhammertawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16972845140253292628noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post-84690665900854294362012-07-30T21:15:22.653+02:002012-07-30T21:15:22.653+02:00If 80% of 200 players play a deck with a 30% chanc...If 80% of 200 players play a deck with a 30% chance to win against the other decks, what are the chances it would win the tournament?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00400463737375433929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post-65807447304929562372012-07-30T21:12:19.452+02:002012-07-30T21:12:19.452+02:00A spherical cow in a vacuum.
Maybe the reason why...A spherical cow in a vacuum.<br /><br />Maybe the reason why delver is dominating because it's an archetype is popular with good players, and players who want to be good?<br /><br />I used to play caw-go, and there were many decks that beat it, but there were also a shit ton of mirror matches. In all be told the deck's winning relied almost completely on drawing a good hand and hoping they had no answers. Just like every deck.<br /><br />Your data is wrong because, quite frankly, it was never real. It holds no candle to real life. There are thousands of other factors you can't quantify for, and one of those is preference. People in major tournaments play what they believe the best deck to be. They have certain underlying assumptions about what the best deck is supposed to include. They have a predisposition that blue is the best color. Of course it is, right? It has mana leak.<br /><br />Now, consider that every player at a PTQ, or other somewhat competitive to highly competitive tournament is either good or wants to be good, they're going to have the same mentality on what to play.<br /><br />If 50% of players play the same thing, and consider it has a 51% victory chance like Wizards said, it's going to win.<br /><br />If 5 people play 1 deck, and 5 people play each a different deck, then it's almost guaranteed that the 1 deck 5 are playing will win. It has the highest chance out of anything to win.<br /><br />So, instead of the deck 'being the beat', it's more like everyone just wants to play the same deck. Removing it will just mean some other deck, probably a blue deck, will become the crowd favorite and win everything.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00400463737375433929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post-19127740371068297032012-07-11T19:18:52.732+02:002012-07-11T19:18:52.732+02:00So what you're saying is... That this is way ...So what you're saying is... That this is way too complicated for most people to understand, and that you could simply be manipulating these statistics in your favor (in the mind of someone who cannot understand this). Therefore, if most people do not see this as a viable resource, you have wasted a lot of time on something that you cannot change anyways. I hope you make at least $100,000 with your knowledge of statistics- it really is very impressive. You really cannot expect the average joe to follow this, you know. Just face it, dude; Delver is great but in all reality I think players will simply get tired of playing it and switch regardless of statisticisms. (That is not a word!) Even if it does stay where it is, what the hell... if you can't beat 'em, join em. Thats what I did so that I could better understand the deck and figure out a strategy to beat it from the inside out. That's besides the point, however. My simple advice is that although you seem to be very intelligent, it is not very bright to waste your time on something like this. But alas, my point is mute because... I read it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post-71015932122671509412012-07-01T08:23:12.633+02:002012-07-01T08:23:12.633+02:00Sheds a lot of light on the issue. I don't exa...Sheds a lot of light on the issue. I don't exactly agree with a part of the conclusion however "That's right - statistics show that current Standard meta is both degenerate (Delver's very high % of the field), and stale (top decks very close to 50% win rate) without much chance of evolving." The simulation you ran grouped decks into colors, which is fine for demonstration but it is misleading because all the color combinations are known and there is no room for a new "color" to suddenly pop into the simulation. If you had used something else to distinguish the decks it may not be so misleading, but the reality is that we are talking about decks, with strategies. New ideas and strategies pop up all the time and throw monkey wrenches into the metagame. I don't think the simulation you used predicts that we won't see much evolution. In fact there has been lots recently in my local area. Delver was once a 60+% deck here a few weeks ago, but since the SCG open it has dwindled to lower than 25% in favor of RG aggro, zombies, and pod lists. Delver has a tough time with those decks. Those decks are also great against the rest of the field.rennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post-88237272971527101642012-06-28T08:05:24.230+02:002012-06-28T08:05:24.230+02:00It might or might not survive rotation, but it doe...It might or might not survive rotation, but it doesn't seem like there's anything in M13 that it will particularly hate, so there's at least 3 more months of Delver.tawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16972845140253292628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post-64861342351688315442012-06-28T03:37:49.096+02:002012-06-28T03:37:49.096+02:00what about the fact that something like 20 cards f...what about the fact that something like 20 cards from the deck will be rotated out in Oct? no Ponder, no Mana leak, no Probe, no Seachromes, no vapor snags, no gut shots...granted im sure they're just use Unsummon for Vaporsnags... but what about the other cheap stuff.... M13 hasnt shown anything as good for Blue to replace them with... might have to see what RtR comes up with.... considering the All Star of Ravnica is Jace im sure Blue will get some nasty stuff.Voila Violahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05964067624967452610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27488238.post-13031429506727387302012-06-25T03:04:26.341+02:002012-06-25T03:04:26.341+02:00you obviously need to go out.you obviously need to go out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com