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Showing posts with label poland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poland. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Infographics by Razem Party are made up

Due to unpopularity of mainstream "left wing" party in Poland SLD, a lot of minor alternative parties tried to come up over the years. So far it's been an endless series of abysmal failures, but did that ever discourage anyone?

The most recent one is Partia Razem (Together Party). Normally I don't care about minor parties with very remote chance of getting elected, but somehow my social media feed got overran by Razem infographics. Most of them are just inflammatory cherrypicking, like comparing salaries of nurses or supermarket workers and one bank CEO or another, which I have no reason to suspect of being false, even if they are completely meaningless.

A few really caught by attention, as numbers they presented seemed economically implausible.

Here are some examples, labour share in GDP. First Poland vs Czech Republic over time:

 And here's some international comparison:

Wait, 36.1%? How the hell does that even... That would be less than China, and China has such low labour share because it spends such unprecedented amounts of money on infrastructure.

Let's check the sources. No link, it just "Eurostat". So what Eurostat has to say about this. Well, Eurostat doesn't seem to have any such data directly, but AMECO has data derived from Eurostat data in two series - Adjusted wage share total economy ALCD0 and ALCD2, differing in treatment of some taxes.

AMECO is somewhat painful to link to, so let's just screenshot actual numbers from both series (click to enlarge):


What can we see? Well, wage share in Poland is indeed much below EU average, which is actually to be expected in rapidly developing country (as larger share of GDP inevitably goes to infrastructure investment, see China etc. for extreme case). But those numbers are completely different. In particular numbers for Poland and Czech Republic Razem wanted to single out are identical - both 53.8% in ALCD2 series, and very close 47.8%/48.7% in ALCD0 series.

These are not their only infographic that seemed suspicious, just the only one I bothered investigating.

In perfect world people would use neutral data, and let it tell the story. We don't live in perfect world, so people routinely cherrypick data that fits their needs and use bullshit visualization techniques. But just making numbers up? Come on, that's inexcusable.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Why I'm not voting in the 2014 European Parliament elections

Snow White helps out (2012), 5 by Finn Frode (DK) from flickr (CC-NC-SA)
All the choices are unacceptable, and there's not even a protest vote option.

Pro-euro parties guarantee Eternal Recession

Polish mainstream political establishment (all the way from far-left to center-right) is pro-EU to the degree that everything EU does is thoughtlessly accepted as amazing - and completely ignores all the genuine problems EU suffers from like creation of eurozone and lack of any real democratic accountability.

Euro was the single biggest mistake in the history of EU, and either abolishing euro or replacing ECB with something less disastrous are the only ways EU can ever exit its eternal recession and return to healthy economic growth.

In case you need the background - unlike most other central banks which are changed with keeping the whole economy in good order, European Central Bank has single mandate of "price stability", and by design is meant to ignore everything else about the economy. To make matters worse while "price stability" was traditionally understood to mean core (excluding highly volatile prices like food and energy) inflation of about 2%, ECB reinterpreted it to mean "as close to 0% inflation as possible". The last time core inflation was over 2% was in 2003, so ECB was not doing its job properly long before the crisis, and since then it's been a total disaster.

Such single-minded focus on inflation is a recipe for turning any kind of economic difficulty into an endless recession with ever-increasing debt levels and massive unemployment (which by unemployment hysteresis becomes pretty much permanent), which is exactly what happened.

Regardless of their mandate, all other central banks in the world have some kind of democratic accountability - if they're screwing too hard their mandate will be adjusted or central bankers replaced. This occasionally resulted in politicians intervening in monetary policy directly, so central banks typically balance this with some degree of operational independence, but ECB got the level of independence so extreme that they are completely unaccountable to anybody - it's just a dictatorship by committee deciding the fate of European economy.

Eurozone is also a horrible as an optimal currency area - without local currencies or capital controls capital flows freely between banks of different countries, which would be perfectly fine if some kind of banking union existed. Instead governments of each country implicitly guarantees private debt of all banks within their territory, with even a suggestion of creditor haircut considered a heresy.

This is a recipe for exactly the kind of disasters we've seen during the Great Recession - German banks lend ton of money to banks in eurozone periphery with no regard for risk, then when things got tough periphery countries became accountable for 100% of these risky loans (with their citizens never being consulted on any of that - if there's one thing EU bureaucrats hate the most, it's any kind of genuine democracy), which required massive austerity, which together with massive capital outflows led to the level of economic deterioration which made debts completely impossible to repay.

Any kind of common sense relief - like banking union, fiscal transfers, bond haircuts, accepting higher eurozone inflation, bonds guaranteed by all of eurozone members, letting insolvent banks fall without government guarantees etc. - are all instantly rejected by the EU bureaucracy, and EU bureaucracy has absolute control over eurozone monetary policy, voters be damned.

The only countries which came out relatively well out of recession were ones outside eurozone like Poland and UK, and ones who basically used it to steal money from the periphery countries like Germany did by forcing them to guarantee private banking loans.

And imagine that - half of Polish political parties want Poland to join euro. Even if this recession ends somehow, and so far nothing suggests that it ever will (Japan's lasts over two decades now with no end in sight), current structure of euro pretty much guarantees another, most likely even worse.

It would make some sense in Latvia maybe - 20% unemployment is not so bad compared with Russian tanks, but for Poland adopting euro would be an unrecoverable disaster.

Anti-euro parties are all basically crazy

Between Smoleńsk and Korwin... OK, that was a cheap shot, but the right wing side of Polish politics took a massive turn into crazy direction lately. Even Korwin used to be a useful voice of dissent in early 90s back when he was just a low-government libertarian instead of going basically full neoreaction.

Even ignoring the crazies and the nationalists, the only people who don't think everything about EU  are ones who want to pretty much dismantle the whole thing, and kick out all the foreigners while they're at it.

There's nobody who wants to turn EU into something workable - which at a minimum means ditching euro in its current form, and introducing an order of magnitude more democratic accountability than it currently has.

Does that mean I'm never voting again?

Not really. It makes sense to vote in elections to European Parliament based on policies parties have towards EU issues, since that's what they'll be doing. In national elections, domestic issues matter a lot more.

Not voting is a totally legitimate choice in any elections. When all choices are horrible, and my vote matters very little (since European Parliament has very little power), there's really no point in endorsing one or another of the horrible choices by voting for it.

To double check my decision I took the quiz on Latarnik Wyborczy website - and it seems I disagree with every single political party pretty much equally. Give it a try as well, maybe you care about other matters and don't consider euro or Smoleńsk as nonnegotiable issues like I do.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Polish Dvorak keyboard layout for OSX

ctrl++elfie by djenvert from flickr (CC-NC-ND)
This is something I should have done like three years ago, but better late than never.

I created Polish Dvorak keyboard layout for OSX and I put it on github repository with installation instructions.

Unlike with Linux Polish Dvorak layout, where altgr-bindings exist only for Polish characters, in this layout pretty much all keys have altgr-bindings. They are mostly mathematical symbols I copied over from standard OSX Dvorak layout. I have no idea if they are actually useful, so if you have a good reason why they should be something else go ahead and message me.

There could also be bugs, so please report them. And since I have a nice repository going, feel free to send me any other custom keyboard layouts you've made.

The process wasn't that bad - it's XML file and there's even an usable third party editor application for them - Ukelele. I remember back when I used Windows and such things required hexediting binaries. These were the days...

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Voter discrimination in Polish parliamentary elections

Pink buttons by kup,kup from flickr (CC-NC-SA)

Poland has a reputation of a stable democratic country, and indeed - pretty much everybody can vote or candidate, and there have never been any vote counting problems. However, there's a massive discrimination of some classes of voters going on, one that the mainstream media never talk about. Your vote will count for less if you:

  • vote in a district with a high turnout
  • vote in a district which arbitrarily got fewer mandates per person
  • you were arbitrarily excluded from district's population count
All three unfortunately apply to voters living in London.

To cut the story short, here's a table of voting power depending on district. Elections to both houses have slightly different number of districts (40 vs 41) so I'll show them separately.

Upper house (Senat)
DistrictMandatesEligible votersActual votersVote weight (theoretical)Vote weight (actual)
Warszawa I4156703811443186340
Warszawa II27566284606346550
Poznań26819534442437252
Szczecin28375804408975852
Łódź26937794224937154
Bydgoszcz28068334214426155
Kraków414315488297676855
Wrocław39715975574297662
Bielsko-Biała25987613465448266
Gdynia39066885065228168
Lublin39645535013987669
Krosno26976323314017070
Gliwice26594063306607470
Rzeszów39567304931607770
Sosnowiec26001553265368271
Kielce310435784842407071
Gdańsk38237424734078973
Katowice38262924686928974
Białystok39512364644327774
Płock26684053078107375
Rybnik25833503036888476
Olsztyn26282343010487877
Piła25962373005118277
Nowy Sącz25841262994538477
Konin26044272994328177
Piotrków Trybunalski25901932927578379
Radom25758122855268581
Tarnów25529422834248981
Wałbrzych25676922725508685
Legnica38061744052989185
Zielona Góra38014903963899287
Toruń38344303938788888
Kalisz37825963885669489
Częstochowa249364425638210090
Sieradz37921123832399390
Koszalin25166552489129593
Opole38309033709968993
Siedlce37468423682699994
Chełm37786413523659598
Elbląg250483723209697100


Lower house (Sejm)
DistrictMandatesEligible votersActual votersVote weight (theoretical)Vote weight (actual)
Warszawa I19156703811459837447
Poznań106819534476169063
Kraków139298265614048565
Łódź106937794227548867
Warszawa II117566284605828967
Wrocław149715975561338871
Gdańsk128237424725048971
Katowice128262924654828973
Bielsko-Biała95987613447639274
Częstochowa74936442557288777
Sosnowiec96001553257379278
Gdynia149066885036369478
Bydgoszcz128068334189029181
Wałbrzych85676922712788683
Szczecin138375804388299583
Legnica128061744045599184
Rybnik95833503029149484
Chrzanów85017222676769784
Lublin159645535017049584
Piła95962372985699285
Nowy Sącz95841262979029485
Konin96044272976459185
Gliwice106594063293509386
Zielona Góra128014903942159186
Rzeszów159567304913639686
Piotrków Trybunalski95901932919829387
Kalisz127825963862359488
Sieradz127921123823879388
Radom95758122848399689
Tarnów955294228132310090
Koszalin85166552465149592
Białystok159512364611809692
Płock106684053069819192
Siedlce127468423681429892
Toruń138344303927299593
Kielce1610435784825719493
Krosno116976323302289694
Olsztyn106282342992319794
Chełm127786413515009496
Elbląg85048372305929798
Opole1383090336854096100


So if you live in Warsaw or London, your vote only counts as 40% to 47% of someone living in Elbląg or Opole. How it happened again ?
  • Allocation of mandates per district was distriminatory in the first place - even dividing mandates per eligible voters a citizen in some districts (like Warsaw) are worth only 63%/74% of a citizen in other district
  • Counts of eligible voters exclude people living abroad. Even worse - for purposes of mandate assignment they are falsely counted as still living at their last address in Poland. So if a few thousand people moved from Legnica district to London (and are now voting in Warsaw I district), a mandate for them is not reassigned from Legnica to London. So people who stayed in Legnica get to vote for them, while people living in Warsaw or London get their votes diluted !
  • Mandates are allocated based on number of theoretical eligible voters, not number of people who actually voted. Just because you live in the same district as someone who didn't bother to vote doesn't give you any right of voting for that person! Only actual voters should be counted.
These three effects discriminated against voters in the past, but it only became a major issue in the last elections, with unprecedented number of people living abroad voting. Apparently they and people living in Warsaw are not worth less than half a citizen. The next parliamentary elections are only due in 2011, so there's plenty of time to fix the problem. People living abroad should either get their own district, or number of mandates for Warszawa I should be increased to take them into account. Or the best thing - allocate the mandates only after the voting, strictly proportionally to the number of valid votes.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Healthcare in Poland

Sick of waiting, Time for action!!! by Andrew Pescod from flickr (CC-NC-SA)

Currently in Poland there's a lot of discussion about the healthcare system. Poland has a mostly state-run healthcare. Not only the health insurance is public, even the hospitals are operated by the government. The former is probably a good idea, considering how horrible the healthcare system is in the only developed country where it is privately run. The latter is a relic of the Communist era which refuses to die.

In the last few months doctors and other healthcare workers were constantly protesting, demanding increased government spending on health care - primarily demanding better salaries. The media completely failed to do their job and didn't provide any real data on health care or health care financing whatsoever. We bloggers need to fill in the gap.

The data wasn't particularly hard to find. It's available from WHO European health for all database (HFA-DB). The comparison is for all 12 "New EU" countries in group and individually, plus "Old EU" and "EU total". I didn't include old EU countries here, as their situation is significantly different, so it wouldn't be particularly meaningful.

CountryLife expectancy (2005)Infant mortality per 1000 births (2005)Healthcare spending as % of GDP (2004)Healthcare spending in USD PPP (2004)
Bulgaria72.6*11.65*8671
Cyprus79.54*3.01*5.81128
Czech Republic76.193.397.31412
Estonia72.895.445.3752
Hungary73.026.237.91308
Latvia71.067.87.1852
Lithuania71.336.846.5843
Malta79.445.969.21733
Poland75.126.426.2814
Romania71.88*16.84*5.1433
Slovakia74.37.27.21061
Slovenia77.584.158.71815
Whole EU78.445.178.72334.32
Old EU79.63*4.34*9.292729.1
New EU73.968.716.51869.61


* - data for 2004

The spending figures are total spending - that is public + private. As you can see healthcare in Poland is somewhat better and somewhat cheaper than "new EU" average. It's still far behind the old EU, but it's not really a crisis situation, especially since the results are improving and the spending is increasing - between 2000 and 2005 life expectancy increased 73.95 to 75.12, infant mortality fell 8.11 to 6.42. Between 2000 and 2004 spending increased as percent of GDP from 5.7 to 6.2, and in USD PPP from 587 to 814.

So the protests seem to be primarily politically motivated. The situation is fairly good compared to other countries in similar situation and is steadily improving. Another thing strongly implying political motivation is the sudden support for the protesting doctors from the normally vehemently anti-union opposition party Platforma Obywatelska.